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Five Reasons Why Trump Will Win

Rose’s late mom would have been praying to St. Jude – seen on her 1949 calendar now hanging on Rose’s bedroom wall – help of the hopeless cases, for TRUMP to be defeated in Nov!

God save America from The Donald!!! (pics:R.T.)

By Michael Moore, filmmaker

I am sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but I gave it to you straight last summer when I told you that Donald Trump would be the Republican nominee for president. And now I have even more awful, depressing news for you: Donald J. Trump is going to win in November. This wretched, ignorant, dangerous part-time clown and full time sociopath is going to be our next president. President Trump. Go ahead and say the words, ‘cause you’ll be saying them for the next four years: “PRESIDENT TRUMP.”

Never in my life have I wanted to be proven wrong more than I do right now.

I can see what you’re doing right now. You’re shaking your head wildly – “No, Mike, this won’t happen!” Unfortunately, you are living in a bubble that comes with an adjoining echo chamber where you and your friends are convinced the American people are not going to elect an idiot for president. You alternate between being appalled at him and laughing at him because of his latest crazy comment or his embarrassingly narcissistic stance on everything because everything is about him. And then you listen to Hillary and you behold our very first female president, someone the world respects, someone who is whip-smart and cares about kids, who will continue the Obama legacy because that is what the American people clearly want! Yes! Four more years of this!

You need to exit that bubble right now. You need to stop living in denial and face the truth which you know deep down is very, very real. Trying to soothe yourself with the facts – “77% of the electorate are women, people of color, young adults under 35 and Trump cant win a majority of any of them!” – or logic – “people aren’t going to vote for a buffoon or against their own best interests!” – is your brain’s way of trying to protect you from trauma. Like when you hear a loud noise on the street and you think, “oh, a tire just blew out,” or, “wow, who’s playing with firecrackers?” because you don’t want to think you just heard someone being shot with a gun. It’s the same reason why all the initial news and eyewitness reports on 9/11 said “a small plane accidentally flew into the World Trade Center.”

We want to – we need to – hope for the best because, frankly, life is already a shit show and it’s hard enough struggling to get by from paycheck to paycheck. We can’t handle much more bad news. So our mental state goes to default when something scary is actually, truly happening. The first people plowed down by the truck in Nice spent their final moments on earth waving at the driver whom they thought had simply lost control of his truck, trying to tell him that he jumped the curb: “Watch out!,” they shouted. “There are people on the sidewalk!”

Well, folks, this isn’t an accident. It is happening. And if you believe Hillary Clinton is going to beat Trump with facts and smarts and logic, then you obviously missed the past year of 56 primaries and caucuses where 16 Republican candidates tried that and every kitchen sink they could throw at Trump and nothing could stop his juggernaut. As of today, as things stand now, I believe this is going to happen – and in order to deal with it, I need you first to acknowledge it, and then maybe, just maybe, we can find a way out of the mess we’re in.

Don’t get me wrong. I have great hope for the country I live in. Things are better. The left has won the cultural wars. Gays and lesbians can get married. A majority of Americans now take the liberal position on just about every polling question posed to them: Equal pay for women – check. Abortion should be legal – check. Stronger environmental laws – check. More gun control – check. Legalize marijuana – check. A huge shift has taken place – just ask the socialist who won 22 states this year. And there is no doubt in my mind that if people could vote from their couch at home on their X-box or PlayStation, Hillary would win in a landslide.

But that is not how it works in America. People have to leave the house and get in line to vote. And if they live in poor, Black or Hispanic neighborhoods, they not only have a longer line to wait in, everything is being done to literally stop them from casting a ballot. So in most elections it’s hard to get even 50% to turn out to vote. And therein lies the problem for November – who is going to have the most motivated, most inspired voters show up to vote? You know the answer to this question. Who’s the candidate with the most rabid supporters? Whose crazed fans are going to be up at 5 AM on Election Day, kicking ass all day long, all the way until the last polling place has closed, making sure every Tom, Dick and Harry (and Bob and Joe and Billy Bob and Billy Joe and Billy Bob Joe) has cast his ballot?

That’s right. That’s the high level of danger we’re in. And don’t fool yourself — no amount of compelling Hillary TV ads, or outfacting him in the debates or Libertarians siphoning votes away from Trump is going to stop his mojo.

Here are the 5 reasons Trump is going to win:

Midwest Math, or Welcome to Our Rust Belt Brexit. I believe Trump is going to focus much of his attention on the four blue states in the rustbelt of the upper Great Lakes – Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Four traditionally Democratic states – but each of them have elected a Republican governor since 2010 (only Pennsylvania has now finally elected a Democrat). In the Michigan primary in March, more Michiganders came out to vote for the Republicans (1.32 million) that the Democrats (1.19 million). Trump is ahead of Hillary in the latest polls in Pennsylvania and tied with her in Ohio. Tied? How can the race be this close after everything Trump has said and done? Well maybe it’s because he’s said (correctly) that the Clintons’ support of NAFTA helped to destroy the industrial states of the Upper Midwest. Trump is going to hammer Clinton on this and her support of TPP and other trade policies that have royally screwed the people of these four states.

When Trump stood in the shadow of a Ford Motor factory during the Michigan primary, he threatened the corporation that if they did indeed go ahead with their planned closure of that factory and move it to Mexico, he would slap a 35% tariff on any Mexican-built cars shipped back to the United States. It was sweet, sweet music to the ears of the working class of Michigan, and when he tossed in his threat to Apple that he would force them to stop making their iPhones in China and build them here in America, well, hearts swooned and Trump walked away with a big victory that should have gone to the governor next-door, John Kasich.

From Green Bay to Pittsburgh, this, my friends, is the middle of England – broken, depressed, struggling, the smokestacks strewn across the countryside with the carcass of what we use to call the Middle Class. Angry, embittered working (and nonworking) people who were lied to by the trickle-down of Reagan and abandoned by Democrats who still try to talk a good line but are really just looking forward to rub one out with a lobbyist from Goldman Sachs who’ll write them nice big check before leaving the room.

What happened in the UK with Brexit is going to happen here. Elmer Gantry shows up looking like Boris Johnson and just says whatever shit he can make up to convince the masses that this is their chance! To stick to ALL of them, all who wrecked their American Dream! And now The Outsider, Donald Trump, has arrived to clean house! You don’t have to agree with him! You don’t even have to like him! He is your personal Molotov cocktail to throw right into the center of the bastards who did this to you! SEND A MESSAGE! TRUMP IS YOUR MESSENGER!

And this is where the math comes in. In 2012, Mitt Romney lost by 64 electoral votes. Add up the electoral votes cast by Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. It’s 64. All Trump needs to do to win is to carry, as he’s expected to do, the swath of traditional red states from Idaho to Georgia (states that’ll never vote for Hillary Clinton), and then he just needs these four rust belt states. He doesn’t need Florida. He doesn’t need Colorado or Virginia. Just Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And that will put him over the top. This is how it will happen in November.

The Last Stand of the Angry White Man. Our male-dominated, 240-year run of the USA is coming to an end. A woman is about to take over! How did this happen?! On our watch! There were warning signs, but we ignored them. Nixon, the gender traitor, imposing Title IX on us, the rule that said girls in school should get an equal chance at playing sports. Then they let them fly commercial jets. Before we knew it, Beyoncé stormed on the field at this year’s Super Bowl (our game!) with an army of Black Women, fists raised, declaring that our domination was hereby terminated! Oh, the humanity!
That’s a small peek into the mind of the Endangered White Male.

There is a sense that the power has slipped out of their hands, that their way of doing things is no longer how things are done. This monster, the “Feminazi,”the thing that as Trump says, “bleeds through her eyes or wherever she bleeds,” has conquered us — and now, after having had to endure eight years of a black man telling us what to do, we’re supposed to just sit back and take eight years of a woman bossing us around? After that it’ll be eight years of the gays in the White House! Then the transgenders! You can see where this is going. By then animals will have been granted human rights and a fuckin’ hamster is going to be running the country. This has to stop!

The Hillary Problem. Can we speak honestly, just among ourselves? And before we do, let me state, I actually like Hillary – a lot – and I think she has been given a bad rap she doesn’t deserve. But her vote for the Iraq War made me promise her that I would never vote for her again. To date, I haven’t broken that promise. For the sake of preventing a proto-fascist from becoming our commander-in-chief, I’m breaking that promise. I sadly believe Clinton will find a way to get us in some kind of military action. She’s a hawk, to the right of Obama. But Trump’s psycho finger will be on The Button, and that is that. Done and done.

Let’s face it: Our biggest problem here isn’t Trump – it’s Hillary. She is hugely unpopular — nearly 70% of all voters think she is untrustworthy and dishonest. She represents the old way of politics, not really believing in anything other than what can get you elected. That’s why she fights against gays getting married one moment, and the next she’s officiating a gay marriage. Young women are among her biggest detractors, which has to hurt considering it’s the sacrifices and the battles that Hillary and other women of her generation endured so that this younger generation would never have to be told by the Barbara Bushes of the world that they should just shut up and go bake some cookies.

But the kids don’t like her, and not a day goes by that a millennial doesn’t tell me they aren’t voting for her. No Democrat, and certainly no independent, is waking up on November 8th excited to run out and vote for Hillary the way they did the day Obama became president or when Bernie was on the primary ballot. The enthusiasm just isn’t there. And because this election is going to come down to just one thing — who drags the most people out of the house and gets them to the polls — Trump right now is in the catbird seat.

The Depressed Sanders Vote. Stop fretting about Bernie’s supporters not voting for Clinton – we’re voting for Clinton! The polls already show that more Sanders voters will vote for Hillary this year than the number of Hillary primary voters in ’08 who then voted for Obama. This is not the problem. The fire alarm that should be going off is that while the average Bernie backer will drag him/herself to the polls that day to somewhat reluctantly vote for Hillary, it will be what’s called a “depressed vote” – meaning the voter doesn’t bring five people to vote with her. He doesn’t volunteer 10 hours in the month leading up to the election. She never talks in an excited voice when asked why she’s voting for Hillary. A depressed voter. Because, when you’re young, you have zero tolerance for phonies and BS.

Returning to the Clinton/Bush era for them is like suddenly having to pay for music, or using MySpace or carrying around one of those big-ass portable phones. They’re not going to vote for Trump; some will vote third party, but many will just stay home. Hillary Clinton is going to have to do something to give them a reason to support her — and picking a moderate, bland-o, middle of the road old white guy as her running mate is not the kind of edgy move that tells millenials that their vote is important to Hillary. Having two women on the ticket – that was an exciting idea. But then Hillary got scared and has decided to play it safe. This is just one example of how she is killing the youth vote.

The Jesse Ventura Effect. Finally, do not discount the electorate’s ability to be mischievous or underestimate how any millions fancy themselves as closet anarchists once they draw the curtain and are all alone in the voting booth. It’s one of the few places left in society where there are no security cameras, no listening devices, no spouses, no kids, no boss, no cops, there’s not even a friggin’ time limit.

You can take as long as you need in there and no one can make you do anything. You can push the button and vote a straight party line, or you can write in Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck. There are no rules. And because of that, and the anger that so many have toward a broken political system, millions are going to vote for Trump not because they agree with him, not because they like his bigotry or ego, but just because they can. Just because it will upset the apple cart and make mommy and daddy mad. And in the same way like when you’re standing on the edge of Niagara Falls and your mind wonders for a moment what would that feel like to go over that thing, a lot of people are going to love being in the position of puppetmaster and plunking down for Trump just to see what that might look like.

Remember back in the ‘90s when the people of Minnesota elected a professional wrestler as their governor? They didn’t do this because they’re stupid or thought that Jesse Ventura was some sort of statesman or political intellectual. They did so just because they could. Minnesota is one of the smartest states in the country. It is also filled with people who have a dark sense of humor — and voting for Ventura was their version of a good practical joke on a sick political system. This is going to happen again with Trump.

Coming back to the hotel after appearing on Bill Maher’s Republican Convention special this week on HBO, a man stopped me. “Mike,” he said, “we have to vote for Trump. We HAVE to shake things up.” That was it. That was enough for him. To “shake things up.” President Trump would indeed do just that, and a good chunk of the electorate would like to sit in the bleachers and watch that reality show.

(Next week I will post my thoughts on Trump’s Achilles Heel and how I think he can be beat.)

Trump and Hitler

ICT editor Rosalie’s primary ballot – she voted for Hill! pic:R.T.

By Edith Morgan

Truth and reality have been the greatest and foremost casualties of this year’s presidential political campaigns, reaching their peak at this week’s Republican convention in Cleveland.

I grew up in a time when the truth was also under attack – my family fled Germany in 1933, just after Hitler was “elected.”

Hitler’s propaganda minister, Goebbels, believed that if you tell a lie often enough, people will believe it – and he certainly seems to have been correct then, as his belief is alive and well and being practiced. So we hear candidate Donald Trump repeating outrageous claims, at least three times in a row ( a favorite ploy of demagogues and others) and then rapidly going on to other things.

When does distortion, lying and exaggeration cross over into delusion? For me, it does that when the speaker seems actually to BELIEVE what he says – though never sticking by any extreme statements for more than a day.

Listening to Newt Gingrich fan up the flames of our fears, I was reminded of another time, when President Franklin Roosevelt, after the infamous and deadly attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941, spoke to us and told us that “we have nothing to fear but fear itself!” The country rallied behind him; we went to work, produced the military weapons needed in a great hurry – Rosie the Riveter went to work in the factories, and our men went out to defend us: we had been attacked on our own soil!

But now times are different: We have been a party to, and often even instigators of, “regime change” – advocating and practicing torture and establishing and maintaining overseas prisons where inmates daily undergo treatment that violates human rights accords. All those actions seemingly do not disturb the conscience of those who loudly proclaim their “Christian” beliefs. Correct me if I am wrong, but did not “the Prince of Peace” preach love, mercy, turning the other cheek and treating “the least of these,” meaning the sick, the poor, the handicapped and above all the children, well? At the very least, we ought to be following the Golden Rule.

I am watching, in the mad rush to acquire or retain power, who is willing to put aside all standards and beliefs and get on a bandwagon which has in recent years done exactly the opposite in practice that they have proclaimed in words.

What we really need is a voting system where our ballots include not only the names of the would be candidates but also a box that enables the voters to choose NONE OF THE ABOVE – and make everyone go back to the drawing board and find better choices.

Go, Chris, go!

What’s up with white people?!

By Chris Horton

Seeing the all-white, mostly 25-55 year old crowd lined up a few weeks ago at the DCU center to see presidential candidate Donald Trump was like being in a time-warp. I grew up “white,” in a very white part of what was the most segregated city in the world, Chicago. South Chicago was so white that I didn’t really know I was white until we moved to a mixed neighborhood when I was 9, yet I absorbed the lessons.

(How that came to be is another story!  Suffice it to say that Chicago’s “Restrictive Covenants” designating where “Negros” were not allowed to live were only struck down by the Supreme Court in 1948; the Chicago Realtor’s Board didn’t even try to hide their profit-maximizing motive for enforcing segregation; and the Police Department enforced it – all of which was invisible to me.) 

Not that where I grew up was anyplace fancy.  We lived a few blocks from US Steel where many of my friends’ dads worked.  It was a tough, dirty, noisy town, a union town, but safe because most of the mothers were at home and watching out for all of us. It looked a lot like Green Island but flatter.  A few brown-skinned folk came into our neighborhood by day to work, but they’d all be gone by dark.  The darkest-skinned girl in my school, a Sicilian beauty named Yvonne, was my third-grade crush.  (Decades later I heard a story of how no one had dared tell her Dad he couldn’t live there!)

There were no black or brown “good guys” on TV or in the movies except for Uncle Remus and Tonto.  Virtually all our sports heroes were white, in virtually every sport.  

(When Roy Williams came over to the White Sox from the Negro League – about which I knew nothing – and we were watching from the bleachers, one of my friends said “he plays all right for a N****!”   I amazed myself by threatening if he ever used that word again I’d punch him in the nose.  He must have believed I meant it because he never did again – around me anyway.  But I’ve always wondered where that came from – I barely knew what the word meant.)  

Our textbooks had George Washington Carver, Booker T Washington and some grateful slaves receiving the gift of freedom from Abe Lincoln. Junior Scholastic magazine told stories about poor starving Africans and good English settlers slaughtered in their beds by Mau Maus. Anything that mattered in the world had been done by “whites.” 

So I didn’t think of myself as white, I was just an American like everyone else I knew.  We were Irish, Jewish, Italian, Polish, English, but we were all American. 

And Americans were White.  Palefaces, as Tonto called us in the movies.  We were the Good Guys in the white hats, who always won in the end because we were righteous – and better at fighting and killing.  I used to thank God I was an American.

I loved the kids I grew up with, still do.  We loved America, marbles, cars and baseball and hated Hitler, Nazis, facists and the Japs whose planes came screaming out of the sky to strafe us as we fought back with machine guns from the sand pits in the vacant lots and practiced dying in hails of bullets. 

Our country has gone through a lot of changes since then.  We’ve all gone through a lot of changes.  Slowly, painfully, starting with sports, we’ve learned that all the stories about what Black people can’t do are lies. Interracial couples, unthinkable where I grew up, are common now and we even have a Black President. Yet here in the DCU Center were what could have been the children and grandchildren of my friends, cheering for Donald Trump, baying for blood and chanting USA! USA!


So what’s up with white folk?  Or more specifically, what’s up with these white folk, mostly non-college white folk in their peak earning years? 

Well, it turns out they’re getting hit pretty hard by this economic depression we’re in, and taking it pretty hard, as reflected in the Feb. 3 daily headlines: “For middle-aged white Americans, death rate is on the rise! Epidemic of suicide, afflictions from substance abuse taking a toll.” 

Not that everyone else isn’t hurting – on average, given the same education level, white folk still have more income, more family wealth and are more likely to be employed, but the difference is narrowing rapidly.  We’re getting a big dose of what everyone else has been experiencing since forever in this rigged economy, and they (we) don’t like it.

Only about 69% of white folk age 20 and over are employed now according to the BLS, down from 75% in 2000, but compared to only 61% of black folk now.  But for middle-aged native-born non-Latino non-college white men, moreso than any other group, there has been no recovery since the bottom of the recession!

The percent working has barely started to recover.  Jobs have become nastier and more insecure, and we’re putting up with abuse and cuts we would have quit over 15 years ago.  The foreclosure crisis hit Black, Latino and immigrant homeowners early and hard; now it is hitting everyone. Health care costs have been savaging us all, but because white workers are more likely to have had good health coverage, we’re more likely to have lost it.  And white workers are more likely to have lost our pension – because we’re more likely to have had one!

For some white workers, the most painful thing is being driven down to the level of everyone else, losing the sense of being special.  But pretty much all of us are outraged because this isn’t how America was “supposed to be”!

In reality, white working-folk face the same crisis, the same challenges as everyone else. Politically, we’ve reached a point where “more of the same” is not an option for us, and we face a fateful choice:

– follow Trump and the illusion we can reclaim our special place in the universe by putting everyone else down,

– or join with the rest of America – and presidential candidate Bernie Sanders – in building a great movement to confront the billionaire class and reclaim our democracy for everyone!


Actually, if you leave out the immigrant-bashing, Mexican-bashing, Moslem bashing and China-bashing, the bragging, threatening and borderline lynch-mob talk – which is asking a lot – what’s left still makes a certain kind of emotional sense.  One Trump-supporter put his reasons like this: 

  – Trump can’t be bought;

  – The system has failed and we need to do something different;

  – Trump says what he really thinks;

These are all things that can be said far better for Bernie!

Yes, Trump’s so rich that he can’t be bought for a few thousand dollars, but his life has been about hustling for wealth and power for himself.  Can we expect that to stop suddenly when we elect him?  Will he suddenly be doing this for us?

Yes, the system has failed, because the top-level politicians mostly are taking the billionaires’ dollars and dancing to their tune.  Trump brags that he’s the one that used to buy them.  Is that less corrupt, or more?

Yes, Trump says what he thinks at the moment, but is it the same as last week?  This week it’s Moslems. Last week it was Mexicans.  Who knows what next week will bring?

None of these arguments will shake a Trump-supporter loose if their real reason is about “being white”, and the pain of losing the special place we once had just by being American in a world where (to us) that meant being white.  Trump is leading us down the road to Hell, to a state where we’re too busy fighting with each other to fight back against the “billionaire class” – his class.  If you doubt this could happen, if you want to know what that might look like, take a look at Iraq, Syria or Libya!  

Hopefully, enough of us still know better and we’ll snap out of it before Election Day!